Nov
17
Fourth Quarter Mcrib
Football teams have the Hail Mary.
G. W. Bush coined the “shock and awe”.
Today, I will claim the “Fourth Quarter McRib”.
Let me use it in a plot-line for you:
Analyst 1: “I’m downgrading XYZ to a sell”
Analyst 2: “Why would you say something like that? My dear colleague-whose-opinion-I-respect-and-will-not-trash-unless-my-year-end-bonus-depends-on-it”
Analyst 1: “Because they have nothing new, even a first-year could build a model to estimate earnings, that’s how predictable they are”
Analyst 2: “Not I, you pompous wonder. I will be upgrading to a BUY”
Analyst 1: “Now that’s just CRAZY talk”
Analyst 2: “Oh, but you see, they are going to pull a Forth Quarter McRib
Analyst 1: “McRib? As in the sandwich from McDonalds?”
Analyst 2: “One and the same. One. And. The. Same. Let me know if you need me to proofread your resume”
What are they talking about?
They are talking about the McRib. You see, beautiful people, the McRib is more than a tasty sandwich…
(cue sentimental music)
The McRib is a way of life. The McRib reminds you of the simpler days, when the value meals were 2.99 plus tax, where you still could find enough quarters, nickels, and dimes in the couch to feed your french fry addiction. Even if it was just for that between-lunch-before-dinner snack that you thought you could sneak in without mom finding out. But mom knew. Don’t kid yourself. Mom knew. You know HOW she new? Because of the BBQ sauce you had dribbled on your shirt you knob. That’s how.
The McRib represents a childhood memory of yourself, before you moved to the big city…before you tell all your friends you “never eat at McDonalds”, yet the guys working the grill at the McDonald’s around the corner still know your name, but know not to wave at you, for fear of recognition. Let’s just say, more honest days.
So where am I going with this exercise in reminicement? (yes, I know, i SEE that red squiggly line under ‘reminicement’, but I’m not changing it). Simple times, back in the day DAMMIT. I didn’t know how to spell THEN, I certainly don’t need this built-in dictionary in this COMPUTER to tell me that I don’t know how to spell NOW). But I digress.
Well, sharpen your pencils my friends.
Bring out your slide rules. (ok, we’re going waaaay back in the day here)
Because what MCD is doing, is just GENIUS!
This is “existing product, DEAD market” in the Ansoff matrix of new product development.
Let’s see how this works (cue overheard conversation in fictitious strategy room):
Head cheese #1: I think we should go with a bang in 4th quarter
Head cheese #2: Oh man, that would be great, I could really use that McMansion over there in McDreamyLand
Head cheese #1: Should we pull out the big gun?
Head cheese #2: Surely you can’t be serious?
Head cheese #1: Oh, I’m serious.
Head cheese #2: BBQ Sauce?
Head cheese #1: Check.
Head cheese #2: Onions?
Head cheese #1: Check.
Head cheese #2: Fake meat?
Head cheese #1: Well, it’ll have to be “real” meat, but just a slightly longer shape.
Head cheese #2: Sandwich bun?
Head cheese #1: Well, it will have to be a “real” sandwich bun, but just a slightly longer shape.
Head cheese #2: Styrofoam container?
Head cheese #1: Don’t even need it. We have paper.
Head cheese #2: This is genius! I can see the headlines now: Back, for a limited time, the McRib!
My friends, THIS is the silver bullet of “surprise! analysts! we beat expectations!” and you know how we did it? with one. tasty. saucy. sandwich that we invented a LONG freaking time ago.
We just keep bringing it back.
Slap a couple bucks together for marketing.
Dust off the old Styrofoam sandwich holders that were yellow and really good at clogging up landfills, and what do you have?
A Fourth Quarter McRib.
incremental revenue, minimal incremental cost, what does that equal? Say it with me! MCD, Long in the fourth quarter. THAT is my prediction
Now for the obvious disclaimer.
I am not a freaking stock picker. If you read this blog post, and decide to drop your entire life savings into MCD, and it tanks, do not come and sue me. On the other hand, if you read this blog post, and chuckle, then take out your checkbook, and write me a check (suggested donation? your entire life savings) 
No. Don’t do that. It’s a joke.
